📢 New research 📢 Disruptive climate actions increase support for pro-environmental political parties
- Markus Ostarek
- 1 day ago
- 5 min read
By Markus Ostarek, Consultant Director of Research, Social Change Lab
15 May 2025 ≈ 8-min read
From motorway sit-ins to museum protests, disruptive climate actions are hard to ignore. In the wake of Just Stop Oil’s recent announcement that they are “hanging up the hi-vis” and shifting away from civil disobedience, a national debate has reignited: have disruptive climate protests helped or hindered the climate movement?
While much of the discussion has focused on disruptive groups’ impact on public opinion, and the backlash they’ve faced, a fundamental question remains unanswered—can these tactics make any real difference in our politics?
Our new report, Protest and the Ballot Box, a collaboration with Eric Scheuch (Yale Department of Political Science), puts data behind the debate, analysing 916 days of polling on voting intention in the United Kingdom, Germany and Sweden. The headline: disruptive climate protests shift voting intention towards pro-climate parties. Effects are small but consistently tilt toward greener parties—though the UK shows some signs of polarisation.
We looked at protests by three disruptive climate groups: Just Stop Oil, in the UK; Letzte Generation (Last Generation), in Germany; and Restore Wetlands, in Sweden. By zooming in on changes in voting intention after vs before climate protests, we assessed whether disruptive actions led to shifts in support for pro- or anti-climate political parties, while controlling for wider political trends over time.
Key Findings
In Germany, disruptive climate protests were associated with a 0.19 percentage point rise in support for the pro-climate Linke Party and a 0.44 percentage point drop for the anti-climate AfD. Overall, pro-climate parties saw a combined boost of 0.33 percentage points due to the protests.
In Sweden, disruptive climate protests raised voting intention for the nominally pro-climate Centerpartiet by 0.45 percentage points. Overall, parties with more favourable climate change policies tended to benefit more from protest, seeing a rise of 0.79 percentage points.
In the UK, disruptive climate protests raised voting intention for the Green Party by about 0.34 percentage points. However, no overall shift towards pro-climate parties was observed, largely because the anti-climate Reform UK trended towards a rise in support. This suggests that climate protests may have a more polarising effect in the UK.
All estimates compare polls released ≤ 7 days after a protest to a three-poll baseline; 95 % credible intervals reported in the full report.
How we ran the study
Data sources
Polling: PolitPro voting intention polls from a number of reputable polling institutes (Jan 2022 – Dec 2023)
Protests: ACLED event records for Just Stop Oil (UK), Letzte Generation (DE) and Återställ Våtmarker (SE)
Design choice
Modified Unexpected Event Study: a poll is considered “treated” (affected by protests) if ≥ 1 protest occurred in the prior 7 days, capturing both short-lived media spikes and polling-field periods.
Baseline: average of the three most recent polls ≥ 7 days before any protest.
Statistical model
Bayesian regressions comparing polls with protests in the last 7 days vs no protest, with week- and quarter-fixed effects to net out protest-unrelated trends over time such as seasonal swings.
Outcome variable: voting intention change from baseline.
Country snapshots
Germany: marginal gains for the left, losses for the far right
In Germany, we looked at protests by the Last Generation, who did roadblocks and other forms of disruptive direct action rather relentlessly over the last years. Their protests were associated with a –0.44 ppt shift away from AfD and +0.19 ppt toward the strongly pro-climate Die Linke. Assuming that people would indeed vote as they indicated, this corresponds to an estimated 94K increase in votes for the Linke and a 218K drop in votes for the AfD. Generally, parties with stronger climate pledges capture the lion’s share of the redirected vote, with the pro-climate bloc seeing a combined boost of 0.33 ppts from protests, which would correspond to around 160K additional votes in a national election.
Sweden: wetlands protesters boost pro-climate parties
In Sweden, we looked at Restore Wetlands, who have made it their mission to ban peat-mining and fund large-scale restoration of Sweden’s drained wetlands, which are now responsible for more emissions than all cars in Sweden. We found that Restore Wetlands actions deliver a +0.45 ppt boost to Centerpartiet and the aggregate pro-climate gain reaches +0.79 ppt, which would correspond to more than 50K extra votes in a general election.
United Kingdom: Greens benefit, but results hint at polarisation
In the UK, our analysis focused on Just Stop Oil (JSO), a group that has dominated headlines with stunts like throwing soup on Van Gogh’s Sunflowers and halting play at sporting events. JSO protests were found to lift the Green Party by +0.34 ppt (which would correspond to a gain of 98K votes), but coincided with a positive (though not significant) trend for the anti-net-zero Reform UK—consistent with polarisation in a hostile media (and heated political) environment.
Why this matters
Although the effect sizes observed in this study are generally small across all three countries, it is notable that disruptive climate protests had a measurable impact at all, especially given that only a small portion of the population is typically exposed to any single protest. This suggests that the actual effect of exposure may be larger than our reported figures imply. In some cases, the relative impact is quite substantial. For example, the estimated gain of 0.45 ppts for the Swedish Centerpartiet represents a nearly 7% shift relative to their vote share of around 6-7% in 2022/23. Moreover, in proportional systems—or tight Westminster constituencies—changes under one percentage point can decide seats. Therefore, even small protest impacts can have meaningful consequences.
This is the first major study to assess whether disruptive climate protest tactics translate into increased support for parties —and the answer, cautiously but clearly, is yes.
Across three very different democracies, with different political systems and protest cultures, we find a consistent trend: disruptive climate actions lead to a modest but measurable increase in pro-climate voting intentions.
That matters for three reasons:
(i) It challenges the backlash narrative. While evidence on the impacts of disruptive protest on public opinion is mixed, our data suggest these actions appear to have a more positive effect on public voting intention, growing support for climate-focused political parties.
(ii) Policymakers closely monitor opinion polls, especially on issues that could affect their re-election prospects. If climate protests lead to pro-climate shifts in voting intention, this could exert indirect pressure on legislators, shaping policy.
(iii) It benchmarks protests alongside traditional campaigning. The impact sizes we observe (0.2 to 1 percentage points) are on a par with other approaches including political advertising and in-person campaigning. In other words, despite widespread criticism of disruptive protest, it can have an impact in line with or slightly exceeding alternative interventions.
Looking ahead
Our findings, here and in previous work, offer both encouragement and challenge for the climate movement.
On the one hand, they suggest that even controversial tactics can shift political sentiment in a meaningful direction. On the other hand, there are signs in some contexts that it can also encourage support for anti-climate parties, highlighting risks of a backfire effect in public opinion, as suggested in previous work (e.g., Feinberg et al., 2020, Fuller et al., 2025).
With Just Stop Oil stepping back from disruptive protest, there is now space to reflect. Movements must consider not just what works to raise awareness, but also what works to change policy and electoral outcomes. The electoral shifts highlighted in our report may be incremental—but they are meaningful, and a sign that protest can move the dial one place it really counts: the polls.
📄 Read the full report: Protest and the Ballot Box – How Disruptive Climate Actions Shape Voting Intentions
🗞️ Op-ed by Social Change Lab Interim Director, Sam Nadel, in The Big Issue: Just Stop Oil may be reviled – but their tactics reshaped the climate movement
👉 Questions or media requests? Contact us at info@socialchangelab.org
This report was funded by the Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust (JRRT). JRRT has supported this work in recognition of the importance of the issue. The facts presented and the views expressed in this report are, however, those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Trust. www.jrrt.org.ukt.
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