What does the evidence say about disruptive protest? Our talk at the EAGxVirtual conference

Last week, our Interim Director, Sam Nadel, was invited to speak at the EAGxVirtual conference to share the latest insights from research on disruptive protest tactics. Watch the talk, 'Disruptive protest tactics: helpful or harmful?' here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YBR0bQ35no

The talk provides a bird’s-eye view on the strength of evidence regarding the impact of disruptive protest on a range of outcomes, including public awareness, opinion, public discourse, and the political system. This map from a forthcoming paper by Thomas-Walters et al. illustrates the strength of evidence in each area:

Thomas-Walters et al. (forthcoming)

Public awareness and opinion

Evidence shows that disruptive protest can be an effective way to generate public and political attention around an issue, and in some cases, it leads to notable increases in public support. For example, Kenward and Brick (2024) demonstrate that Extinction Rebellion's disruptive activism in 2019 strengthened environmental attitudes in the UK. Similarly, Kountouris and Williams (2022) found that Extinction Rebellion's actions reduced opposition to pro-environmental behaviours and policies without alienating the public, while a study conducted in Germany reported that public concern about climate change increased by approximately 1.2 percentage points in the period following similar protests (Brehm & Gruhl, 2024).

(YouGov 2021)

However, there are challenges. Some studies suggest that disruptive protest may provoke "backfire" effects, reducing support for the movement’s goals. For example, Feinberg et al. (2020) found that 'extreme' protest tactics by animal rights, anti-Trump, and anti-abortion movements decreased public support for their causes. Similarly, our research on disruptive protests at the Grand National revealed short-term negative impacts on public attitudes towards animals, although these effects appeared to dissipate over time, with attitudes improving after six months.

Radical flank effects

Our recent paper in Nature Sustainability highlights a less-discussed impact: the radical flank effect. Findings suggest that awareness of radical groups through highly publicised non-violent disruptive protests can increase public identification with and support for more moderate groups within the same movement. For instance, disruptive protests blocking London's M25 motorway in November 2024 enhanced public support for Friends of the Earth, a moderate climate organisation. Simpson et al. (2022) similarly showed the presence of a radical faction tends to boost support for moderate factions within the same movement. Thus, radical tactics, while often unpopular, can boost support for a broader movement.

Ostarek et al. (2022)

Media and public discourse

Disruptive protests often succeed in drawing media attention and sparking public conversations. Research shows that high-profile demonstrations, particularly those involving norm-breaking actions such as blocking motorways, generate significant media coverage and increase issue salience (Oliver and Myers, 1999; Wien and Elmelund-Præstekær, 2009).

The media portrayal, however, depends heavily on the nature of the tactics employed. Confrontational approaches, while generating substantial coverage, may not always align with the movement's intended message (Caren et al., 2020).

Protests can also shape public discourse, influencing how issues are discussed in both traditional and social media spaces. For example, the Black Lives Matter movement significantly increased discussions about systemic racism and mass incarceration, with effects persisting long after protests occurred (Dunivin et al., 2022). Similarly, climate demonstrations were linked to a twenty-fold increase in Google searches for terms like "climate emergency" and "climate crisis" during 2019 (Thackeray, 2019).

'Black Lives Matter protests shift public discourse' (Dunivin et al., 2022)

The political system

Beyond public opinion and discourse, what role do protest movements play in influencing the political system? Evidence suggests that the relationship is complex. Protest movements often exert influence at the agenda-setting stage, where they pressure policymakers to address the issues raised by protesters. For example, Schürmann (2022) demonstrated that Fridays for Future protests in Germany increased parliamentary attention to climate-related issues, including more frequent debates. Our research on the Insulate Britain campaign showed a similar dramatic rise in mentions of insulation in UK Parliament during and after their protests.

However, direct policy impacts are harder to establish. Giugni (2007) argues protest movements exert minimal direct policy influence. Bernardi et al. (2021) similarly argue that protest movements' policy impact is limited to specific scenarios where protest activity intersects with public priorities to influence legislative agenda-setting. On the other hand, research in the US has shown more direct effects: Madestam et al. (2013) found that Tea Party protests influenced congressional representatives to adopt more conservative voting patterns. Others have argued protests increase the likelihood of environmental legislation (Agnone, 2007).

Emerging evidence also suggests that protests may influence electoral outcomes. Studies have linked Black Lives Matter protests to increased Democratic vote shares (Klein Teeselink and Melios, 2021) and Fridays for Future actions in Germany to increased Green Party vote shares (Valentim, 2023).

An activist’s dilemma

Overall, this body of evidence points to an activist’s dilemma: while disruptive protest can be an effective way to draw public and political attention, it can also polarise opinion and lead to unintended backfire effects. The research outlined above may help activists navigate this dilemma, for example by tailoring strategies to mitigate potential risks, such as backfire effects, while leveraging opportunities like radical flank effects.

We hope you find the talk interesting, and if you have any questions about topics covered or any of our work, don't hesitate to get in touch, or check out our research page.