Why this matters
Social movement organisations using civil resistance are rarely considered a viable theory of change within philanthropy or Effective Altruism. Yet nonviolent protest has historically driven major policy change - and there has been almost no quantitative analysis of how cost-effective these campaigns actually are compared to conventional charitable interventions.
What we found
Using a cluster-thinking approach, the analysis assessed XR UK’s impact across four metrics: local authority net-zero declarations, the government’s 78% CO₂e reduction target by 2035, the 2050 net-zero commitment, and increases in UK climate finance spending. Across all four, XR abated an estimated 0.3-71 tonnes of CO₂e per pound spent on advocacy (median 8 tonnes) - outperforming the Clean Air Task Force, the top EA-recommended climate charity, by a factor of 0.2x-18x (median 7x). Significant uncertainty remains, and the estimates rely on contested attribution assumptions.
What it means for funders
Early-stage social movement organisations represent an under-explored, potentially high-leverage giving opportunity. Funding SMOs at incubation stage - before they can self-fundraise - can help them cross the critical early hurdle and unlock far larger movements and resources. The report argues for a hits-based approach: expected value may be high despite uncertain odds, and funding impact-aligned SMOs early can prevent counter-productive ideologies from taking root within a movement.
Read the full report
The findings above are a summary. The full report, including methodology and supporting evidence, is available on socialchangelab.org.
Read the report