Protest Movements: How effective are they?

Why this matters

Protests are one of the most commonly used tactics for social change, yet the evidence base on their actual impact is surprisingly thin. If even a small percentage of protest movements achieve outsized impacts on public opinion, policy, or discourse, this has major implications for how philanthropists, advocates, and movement organisers allocate resources.

What we found

We used five complementary research methods (literature review, expert interviews, policymaker interviews, public opinion polling, and a case study of Extinction Rebellion) to triangulate evidence across outcomes. Large protest movements appear to drive small but meaningful shifts in public opinion (60-80% confidence), small positive shifts in policy (40-60% confidence), and moderate-to-large increases in the salience of their issues (60-80% confidence). Our bespoke polling around Just Stop Oil and Extinction Rebellion's 2022 actions found no "backfire" effect on public support for climate, despite disruptive tactics. There is also strong evidence of large variance between protest movements: the most effective are likely 10-100x more impactful than the median.

What it means for funders

Protest movements are a hits-based strategy. Most achieve little, but a small percentage achieve outcomes large enough to justify funding a portfolio of social movement organisations, particularly in climate and animal advocacy where external conditions are favourable. Grassroots organisations should be considered alongside conventional policy and advocacy routes when seeking the most effective ways to bring about change.