The Radical Flank Effect of Just Stop Oil

Why this matters

Whether radical protest helps or harms the broader movement is one of the most contested questions in activist strategy. Previous evidence came only from laboratory experiments. This study tests the radical flank effect using large-scale real-world polling around an actual ongoing campaign, providing the most direct evidence to date of how radical and moderate factions interact in practice.

What we found

Surveys of 1,415 UK adults conducted immediately before and after Just Stop Oil’s November 2022 M25 blockade found a clear positive radical flank effect: increased awareness of Just Stop Oil was directly linked with increased identification with and support for Friends of the Earth, a moderate climate organisation not involved in the protests. Support for Friends of the Earth’s goals rose from 50.4% to 53.7% of the UK population - equivalent to around 2 million additional people - over the two-week polling window. However, increased awareness of Just Stop Oil was not associated with greater support for climate policies overall, and for those already sceptical of climate action there was a slight negative trend, suggesting some polarisation. The increase in broader climate policy support was attributed largely to concurrent COP27 media coverage rather than to the protests themselves.

What it means for the movement

The findings suggest that moderate organisations may benefit from radical action by groups in the same broader movement, even when that action is controversial. This has practical implications: moderate groups have more reason to tolerate – and perhaps quietly welcome – radical flanks than they commonly acknowledge. It also points to the importance of tactical diversity within movements, and supports funders who back both radical and moderate actors as part of a deliberate ecosystem strategy. The results also hint at limits: tactics that cause high levels of public disruption may generate some polarisation, and the positive flank effect on moderate support may not translate directly into broader pro-movement policy sentiment.